Posted by Kromey at 8:01pm Jun 29 '12The FBI has just (well, a couple of weeks ago, now) released their preliminary statistics for crime in 2011. The results paint a sobering picture: The trend in violent crime of the last 20-odd years has continued.
Source: FBI Uniform Crime Reports, 1991-2010
Well, wait a second, you say, that seems to show a decline in violent crime? How is that bad news?
Yes, it's true -- violent crime rates in the US have decreased in 18 out of the last 20 years. This downward trend holds true not only for overall violent crime, but for all categories therein; in fact, homicide is at a 40-something-year low! This is terribly bad news if you are a rabid, foaming-at-the-mouth, gun-grabbing liberal, because at the same time that violent crime -- supposedly the result of guns -- is decreasing, gun ownership is increasing, repeatedly setting all-time high records year after year.
Source: ATF
This second chart shows the number of NICS checks per year, and while it's true that a NICS check is not necessarily a gun sale, it is equally true that a rising trend is almost certainly indicative of rising gun sales -- a conclusion backed up by polls showing a rise in gun ownership and industry figures showing increasing production.
So what has gun control been doing in the meantime? For the most part: Receding.
Source [site in turn includes citations for its data]
As these maps show, more and more states have become more and more permissive in their carry laws over the same period that violent crime has been in decline. (If you go to the site linked above, there's a nifty animated map showing year-on-year progress in expanded carry rights.) For the states which publish such numbers (and for which such numbers are relevant, e.g. not Vermont), all of them show year-on-year increases in the numbers of permit holders.
To add on to that, there have been many court cases in recent years -- most notably Heller in 2008 and McDonald in 2010 -- that have struck down unreasonable and unjust gun control laws, in effect repealing them and adding to the increasing relaxation of gun control laws. To say nothing of the furthered expansion of gun rights, such as Castle Doctrine laws.
So not only do we have more guns, but we can reasonably deduce that we have more people carrying guns while at the same time there are fewer and fewer restrictions on their use.
Bizarre capitalization aside, Spock's dead on -- every time a new bill comes up in a legislature anywhere in the country that "threatens" to relax gun control laws, the gun control lobbyists denounce the bill as paving the way for "blood in the streets"; likewise, when a bill comes up that would tighten gun control, those same lobbyists "predict" the same "blood in the streets" consequences if the bill's not passed.
Every time those predictions are made, they are proven false. Every. Single. Time. Just one example, there are countless others. And yet people continue to make them, and people continue to believe them.
Well, the numbers don't lie. And neither does Spock.
Ben Franklin, on the other hand, may have told a few in his life -- but this isn't one.
So, really, what's the takeaway here? That more guns means less crime? Well, the last twenty years certainly lends some credence to that, and some -- such as John Lott
-- have indeed made that argument; that's not my argument, however. In fact, despite owning a copy of Lott's book, I remain unconvinced that there's a causal relationship either way (although maybe I'll change my mind when I, you know, read his book -- maybe). Rather, my point is to quite simply debunk the myth that more guns, and/or less gun control, means more crime -- it quite simply is not true.
The fact of the matter is that guns of all kinds have multiple legitimate uses, including sport, recreation, and defense; criminal use of guns is far and beyond the exception rather than the rule, and is easily outweighed on a daily basis by lawful gun use all over the country.
Source: FBI Uniform Crime Reports, 1991-2010
Well, wait a second, you say, that seems to show a decline in violent crime? How is that bad news?
Yes, it's true -- violent crime rates in the US have decreased in 18 out of the last 20 years. This downward trend holds true not only for overall violent crime, but for all categories therein; in fact, homicide is at a 40-something-year low! This is terribly bad news if you are a rabid, foaming-at-the-mouth, gun-grabbing liberal, because at the same time that violent crime -- supposedly the result of guns -- is decreasing, gun ownership is increasing, repeatedly setting all-time high records year after year.
Source: ATF
This second chart shows the number of NICS checks per year, and while it's true that a NICS check is not necessarily a gun sale, it is equally true that a rising trend is almost certainly indicative of rising gun sales -- a conclusion backed up by polls showing a rise in gun ownership and industry figures showing increasing production.
So what has gun control been doing in the meantime? For the most part: Receding.
Source [site in turn includes citations for its data]
As these maps show, more and more states have become more and more permissive in their carry laws over the same period that violent crime has been in decline. (If you go to the site linked above, there's a nifty animated map showing year-on-year progress in expanded carry rights.) For the states which publish such numbers (and for which such numbers are relevant, e.g. not Vermont), all of them show year-on-year increases in the numbers of permit holders.
To add on to that, there have been many court cases in recent years -- most notably Heller in 2008 and McDonald in 2010 -- that have struck down unreasonable and unjust gun control laws, in effect repealing them and adding to the increasing relaxation of gun control laws. To say nothing of the furthered expansion of gun rights, such as Castle Doctrine laws.
So not only do we have more guns, but we can reasonably deduce that we have more people carrying guns while at the same time there are fewer and fewer restrictions on their use.
Bizarre capitalization aside, Spock's dead on -- every time a new bill comes up in a legislature anywhere in the country that "threatens" to relax gun control laws, the gun control lobbyists denounce the bill as paving the way for "blood in the streets"; likewise, when a bill comes up that would tighten gun control, those same lobbyists "predict" the same "blood in the streets" consequences if the bill's not passed.
Every time those predictions are made, they are proven false. Every. Single. Time. Just one example, there are countless others. And yet people continue to make them, and people continue to believe them.
Well, the numbers don't lie. And neither does Spock.
Ben Franklin, on the other hand, may have told a few in his life -- but this isn't one.
So, really, what's the takeaway here? That more guns means less crime? Well, the last twenty years certainly lends some credence to that, and some -- such as John Lott
-- have indeed made that argument; that's not my argument, however. In fact, despite owning a copy of Lott's book, I remain unconvinced that there's a causal relationship either way (although maybe I'll change my mind when I, you know, read his book -- maybe). Rather, my point is to quite simply debunk the myth that more guns, and/or less gun control, means more crime -- it quite simply is not true.The fact of the matter is that guns of all kinds have multiple legitimate uses, including sport, recreation, and defense; criminal use of guns is far and beyond the exception rather than the rule, and is easily outweighed on a daily basis by lawful gun use all over the country.
Bad news, I'm afraid - Kromey