Posted by Sir Four at 10:32am May 14 '08In national polls, Obama's favorability rating among whites has remained pretty consistent. The Pastor Wright thing caused only a several percentage point dip. It seems that most of the people who were making a big deal out of the Wright thing already did not favor Obama.
The race issue is in focus right now due to a quirk in the primary calendar that puts several states from the same region in close voting order. Obama does have a race problem in this region, but not in other regions of the country. He is expected to get a big win in Oregon, where the population is only 2% black.
I am not concerned about Obama's electability. Let's remember some fundamentals. The Republican brand is in the toilet. Incumbant parties historically suffer in years when the public is so unhappy, and also when the economy is doing poorly. Bush has one of the highest unfavorability ratings of all US presidents, and McCain has foolishly linked himself with a number of Bush's policies.
Right now, Democrats have more seats in the House than the Republicans had after the Republican Revolution in 1994, and it looks like Dems will pick up even more in November.
In fact, there have been three vacated Republican seats just this season, which needed to be filled by a special election. Obama endorsed at least two of these candidates, running in traditionally-Republican districts (one being Dennis Hastert's district!). All three Democrats won, signaling the pain that lies ahead for Republicans in the fall.
Consider this week's special election in a conservative Mississippi district (went for Bush by 63% in 2004). Obama endorsed the Democrat, Travis Childers. The Republican candidate ran this ad:
But what happened? Travis Childers won the district by eight points.
Both Obama and Clinton have consistently tied or came out ahead of McCain in nationwide polls, in recent months. But this is as favorable of a period as McCain will get--his potential rivals are beating each other up, rather than focusing on him. It doesn't get any better than right now for McCain, and it is hard to imagine it getting any worse for Obama than what has already come out about his pastor.
Most of the Hillary supporters who say they won't vote for Barack will vote for him in the end, just as the reverse would have been true. I also predict that Ron Paul and Bob Barr will help further weaken McCain. The Democrat will win the presidency, and Democrats will pick up more seats in both the House and the Senate. 2008 will be a political re-alignment.
The race issue is in focus right now due to a quirk in the primary calendar that puts several states from the same region in close voting order. Obama does have a race problem in this region, but not in other regions of the country. He is expected to get a big win in Oregon, where the population is only 2% black.
I am not concerned about Obama's electability. Let's remember some fundamentals. The Republican brand is in the toilet. Incumbant parties historically suffer in years when the public is so unhappy, and also when the economy is doing poorly. Bush has one of the highest unfavorability ratings of all US presidents, and McCain has foolishly linked himself with a number of Bush's policies.
Right now, Democrats have more seats in the House than the Republicans had after the Republican Revolution in 1994, and it looks like Dems will pick up even more in November.
In fact, there have been three vacated Republican seats just this season, which needed to be filled by a special election. Obama endorsed at least two of these candidates, running in traditionally-Republican districts (one being Dennis Hastert's district!). All three Democrats won, signaling the pain that lies ahead for Republicans in the fall.
Consider this week's special election in a conservative Mississippi district (went for Bush by 63% in 2004). Obama endorsed the Democrat, Travis Childers. The Republican candidate ran this ad:
But what happened? Travis Childers won the district by eight points.
Both Obama and Clinton have consistently tied or came out ahead of McCain in nationwide polls, in recent months. But this is as favorable of a period as McCain will get--his potential rivals are beating each other up, rather than focusing on him. It doesn't get any better than right now for McCain, and it is hard to imagine it getting any worse for Obama than what has already come out about his pastor.
Most of the Hillary supporters who say they won't vote for Barack will vote for him in the end, just as the reverse would have been true. I also predict that Ron Paul and Bob Barr will help further weaken McCain. The Democrat will win the presidency, and Democrats will pick up more seats in both the House and the Senate. 2008 will be a political re-alignment.
Why I'm not overly concerned about Obama's race - Sir Four