Posted by Sir Four at 4:22pm Sep 9 '12Gallup:
It shows a 5 point lead for Obama, and this is similar to other poll results. Even Rasmussen has Obama up by 4, where they formerly had him trailing Romney.
I'm reading lots of anecdotes saying Bill Clinton's speech in particular convinced people to support Obama. His was really the stand-out moment of both conventions. In contrast, the most memorable thing about the GOP convention was Clint Eastwood arguing with an empty chair.
There are three circumstances wherein Romney may climb back up: 1) good performance in the debates, 2) a flood of negative advertising, and 3) any bad events that may happen on Obama's watch. The last isn't under Romney's control, obviously. The debates won't present any easy opportunities; Obama isn't the strongest debater (too much stuttering), but Romney didn't shine either during the primaries (and is prone to gaffs). The negative advertising flood is kicking in right now, though. This is where all the millionaire money is about to go. They're rolling out ads in about a dozen key states. It won't be easy for Romney, though: of all the states considered "swing" states, he only leads one currently (North Carolina).
** Actually, thinking about the debates, I'd say Obama has the advantage if he goes all Bill Clinton over Romney's "alternate reality"--a task made even easier by the fact that Romney himself has been all over the map on every issue.
It shows a 5 point lead for Obama, and this is similar to other poll results. Even Rasmussen has Obama up by 4, where they formerly had him trailing Romney.
I'm reading lots of anecdotes saying Bill Clinton's speech in particular convinced people to support Obama. His was really the stand-out moment of both conventions. In contrast, the most memorable thing about the GOP convention was Clint Eastwood arguing with an empty chair.
There are three circumstances wherein Romney may climb back up: 1) good performance in the debates, 2) a flood of negative advertising, and 3) any bad events that may happen on Obama's watch. The last isn't under Romney's control, obviously. The debates won't present any easy opportunities; Obama isn't the strongest debater (too much stuttering), but Romney didn't shine either during the primaries (and is prone to gaffs). The negative advertising flood is kicking in right now, though. This is where all the millionaire money is about to go. They're rolling out ads in about a dozen key states. It won't be easy for Romney, though: of all the states considered "swing" states, he only leads one currently (North Carolina).
** Actually, thinking about the debates, I'd say Obama has the advantage if he goes all Bill Clinton over Romney's "alternate reality"--a task made even easier by the fact that Romney himself has been all over the map on every issue.